Based on the overwhelming response and acceptance at Blogger, I have become a dedicated "Spotter", and will not be posting on AOL any more. I will migrate this journal to Blogger at the right time, as a second "archive" journal.
If you would like to visit, please look me up at:
--SIXTY-NINE PERCENT OF AMERICANS "DEFINITELY" FAVOR NEW NUCLEAR PLANTS in the US, according to a poll by Bisconti Research and GfK for the Nuclear Energy Institute. This is 10% more than favored new reactors in a similar poll last conducted in April 2007, NEI said September 29. Three-fourths of those polled said they "would find it acceptable to add a new reactor at the nearest existing nuclear power plant site," 9% more than last year, NEI said. The poll found that 38% "strongly favor" nuclear energy and 10% "strongly oppose" the technology, it said. Nuclear plants are considered "safe and secure" by 78% of those surveyed, up from 71% in April 2007, NEI said. Seventy-six percent said the US should continue to develop a geologic spent fuel repository at Yucca Mountain in Nevada as long as it meets NRC regulations, it said. Ann Bisconti, president of Bisconti Research, said in a statement that, "in the 25 years that I have been tracking public opinion about nuclear energy, I have never witnessed anything like this increase on all the measures [of support for nuclear power] across the board." The telephone survey of 1,000 adults was conducted September 18-21 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
I will continue to post both locations, but my new journal will be: http://buckoclown.blogspot.com/
This is a non-partisan entry. As they say on Dragnet, "Just the Facts".
Dem 140 For Bailout
Dem 95 Against Bailout
GOP 65 For Bailout
GOP 133 Against Bailout
NEW ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP FROM ROVE & CO.
It's too soon for the 29 state polls released since last Wednesday to reflect the post-debate political environment, but it's clear that the recent economic news has been favoring Barack Obama. The Democrat continues to rise in the Electoral College, picking up 48 electoral votes from Michigan (17 EV), Pennsylvania (21 EV), and Wisconsin (10 EV) to bring him to 259 votes, his most since before the Republican convention. Both Missouri (11 EV) and North Carolina (15 EV) fell from McCain's column to toss-up, leaving him with 163 electoral votes. 116 electoral votes remain a toss-up, but Obama now holds his largest lead over McCain since July 17th. With 36 days remaining before the election, each candidates has the time and ability to change the dynamic of the race - and I am confident that will happen several times more.
If you want to sign up for updates from Karl Rove, click the link :o)
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We had a great day yesterday (read about it at Nutwood Junction). When we arrived at Cousin Tom's House, we helped prepare the apples. As the initial ingredients were cooking down, we walked around the yard and took some pictures.
After that, between 11:30 A.M. and 1:00 P.M., family and friends started to arrive. We mixed and mingled, which is where the shots in the video came from. One thing that the "family" is known for is eating, and you will see a shot of the spread that was out for the potluck. The last shots in the video are of Cousin Tom taking the turkey out of the "ground oven". It was very tasty.
This was a learning experience for me today, I used Google "Picasa 3" to convert my pictures to a move, then went to YouTube and uploaded the video (could not get the Picasa upload to work). Eventually, I hope to add captions and music, but since this effort took me several hours this afternoon, I will leave it silent. Enjoy.
Hope your weekend was good, and that you head into the new week with a positive attitude and smile on your face :o)
Today, on NPR, there was a Michiana Chronicles spot (we live in an area that borders on Michigan and Indiana, from Lake Michigan to Elkhart, IN, and the name of this region is Michiana). There was a tribute to a recently deceased family member, a golden retriever dog. The line that really hit home for me was that a dog has "boundless hope" that is expressed every time you go for a walk, rub their belly, and such. I think this really applies to most pets, they really want to be with us, and they are non-judgmental (for the most part, or if they are Siamese :o). I did a quick google search for "Ode to Dog" and found this Ode. Hope you enjoy.
An Ode To Dogs [http://myjunkmail.blogspot.com/2008/03/ode-to-dogs.html]
We are getting ready to watch the Office, and this show is one of the best shows in recent memory. It is one of the inspirations for my new "Sunday Silliness" entries.
But that is not the subject of this entry. Today, several months of investigation, interfacing with various senior management and engineers, and many hours of balancing the 5-10 year budget, I received approval of a 5 year capital budget for the station today. This is a first in my nine years there, doing more than one year at a time. As an added extra, we approved the incentive plan for 2009 as well. Unfortunately, the 2008 incentive may take a hit based on my previous entry, with one of the units out of service. Good thing we do not budget for incentives :o)
Hope your week is going well, and with tomorrow being Friday, that you are ramping up for an excellent weekend.
Due to the serious nature of this event, and the fact that the low pressure turbines were replaced in 2006, and legal and insurance issues, I can not give any details beyond the below press release. The picture to the left is a typical turbine steam path for a power plant.This is a huge impact to our plant and our company, as a single unit power replacement cost is in the neighborhood of $500K to $1M per day.
COOK UNIT 1 GENERATOR FIRE INSPECTIONS CONTINUE
BRIDGMAN, Mich., Sept. 22, 2008 – Initial indications are that Saturday night’s fire at American Electric Power’s (NYSE: AEP) Cook Nuclear Plant Unit 1 occurred when turbine vibrations led to a generator hydrogen leak that ignited. Damage to the turbines and generator from the fire is minimal, but vibrations did damage the low pressure turbines, bearing supports and some steam piping.
The cause of the vibrations is believed to be an imbalance from the loss of turbine rotor blades.
Hydrogen is used in a closed system to keep the generator cool during operation and the seals that contain the hydrogen were likely damaged by the vibrations.
“We know how to fix and operate equipment, but we are most gratified that there were no personal injuries as a result of the incident,” said Mike Rencheck, AEP senior vice president and chief nuclear officer. “Our plant operations crews, fire brigade, security officers and other emergency responders all performed well. We are also very appreciative of the excellent response and support of local fire fighters and law enforcement.”
The small fire was quickly contained by the plant fire brigade. Fire personnel from Lake Township, Bridgman, Lincoln Township, Royalton Township and Chikaming Township responded to the site or mobilized. Berrien County Sheriff’s deputies and Baroda/Lake Township law enforcement also responded.
One the plant’s three fire pumps was damaged and a 12-inch water supply line broke. Cook uses Lake Township water as a back-up to on site water storage tanks and is currently connected to that system.
An estimate for returning the unit to service will be made after the turbine casings are removed and the turbines fully inspected. It is expected to take about one to three weeks to complete turbine inspections.
The generator is in the Turbine Building and is separate from the nuclear reactor that is located in the Containment Building. The nuclear systems were unaffected by the generator fire. AEP has sufficient reserve generating capacity so the loss of the Cook unit had no impact on customers. Cook Unit 2 remained at 100 percent power through the incident.
The purpose of this entry is to try and explain the current Wallstreet and economic turmoil, in simple terms. <yeah, good luck with that, he hears through heavy sighs>. I am making this entry early, so that as your eyes glaze over, you can recover and enjoy the rest of your night, the last thing I want is to put you to sleep on your keyboard :o)
Investors, particularly foreign investors seeking higher yields as we have lowered interest rates, demand more options. Wallstreet answers with the development of Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs), which are complicated securities based on pools of mortgages. They were rated AA and AAA grade investments (this is good) by the rating agencies (this is an often overlooked aspect of this mess, we need rules and standards in this area as well).
With rising home prices over the last decade, financial firms not only create these CDOs, but leverage and load up, in the case of Lehman, borrowing at a rate of 30 to 1 to their capital reserves and assets. If you borrow 30 times your capital, and those investments rise in value 1%, you essentially make a 30% return. Conversely, if they lower in value 1%, you have a 30% loss.
American Insurance Group (AIG), and other insurers, sell Credit-Default Swaps (CDS), derivatives designed to protect investors from failures. Again, not a bad practice in a rising market, but when leveraged firms start losing money (due to the housing downturn), they can not cover all the losses. AIG is a $1 trillion company, and the government could not let it fail, hence the $85 Billion LOAN (not a bailout, the tax payers own more than 80% of this company now, and with patience and time, we will make money on this investment).
Last, supply of housing overwhelms demand, and the median sales price of existing homes falls 15% from 2006 to 2007. Mortgage holders, including the sub-primes, owe more than their homes are now worth, and with adjustable rates, they start to default in large numbers. These defaults cause the huge economic fiasco that we are in based on those leveraged companies, and as each percentage point of loss looms, the CDOs become worthless. Purchasing of securities and mortgages stop, and the government must again step in and put Freddie and Fannie in conservatorship.
Basically, in the short term, tax payers are bailing out the financial institutions, but in the long term, similar to the Savings and Loan fiasco, the taxpayers can end up ahead as the economy recovers, which it will.
Hope this long winded entry explains things a tad :o)
Tonight, via my involvement in our company Political Action Committee, we had tickets to go hear Karl Rove speak at an event for the Economic Club of Southwestern Michigan. Go to Nutwood Junction for a more in-depth description of the event :o)
Karl Rove is a staunch Republican, who played a large part in the successful elections of George Bush, #43. He has a brilliant political mind, whether you are Republican or not. He also served as #43's Chief of Staff, and was part of the inner circle. He is currently a political analyst for Fox News, and his bias definitely came out in quoting Fox polls and such. But all in all, a very informative and entertaining speech.
For those political addicts out there, and for my Republican friends, here is a link to his web site. I have subscribed for updates.
For you J-Landers out there, who like me, are still part of the daily grind, here is a link to a video on bad management - Disconfirmation. I plan on doing some of these periodically to bring you a bit of humor. Sometimes, knowing what not to do is just as important as doing the right thing :o)
Disconfirmation: Face-to-face interaction of executives with their employee subordinates is an unfortunate necessity in most organizations. However distasteful, such exchanges do provide fertile opportunities for the seeding of Radical Demotivation™ in the employee psyche. In this segment, Dr. E.L. Kersten explains one of several disconfirmational communication tactics which can be helpful in disabusing employees of their narcissistic delusions of parity.
One of my favorite Bob And Tom diddies is "So you think you are smarter than Einstein?". So, with this entry, I ask you, do you think you are smarter than Warren Buffett? His holding company is purchasing Constellation Energy, which has one of the most aggressive Nuclear philosophies out there. If you are a betting person in the financial sector, Progress Energy, Florida Power & Light, NRG, Constellation, Detroit Edison, and Exelon have all recently announced that they are considering nuclear expansion. So, consider investments in these companies, after you have performed the proper vetting of course :o)
--MIDAMERICAN HAS REACHED A TENTATIVE AGREEMENT TO BUY CONSTELLATION for about $4.7 billion, the companies said September 18. The companies said they expect to enter into a definitive merger agreement by close of business September 19 and to close the deal within nine months. In a statement, MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. President and CEO Gregory Abel said his company "is comfortable with, and committed to, Constellation Energy's current strategic plan." He said MidAmerican intends to allow Constellation "to operate autonomously as it pursues its long-term goals." Constellation's "premier fleet of nuclear assets, and its UniStar venture with [EDF Group] complements MidAmerican's ongoing commitment to environmental initiatives, including investments in hydro, wind and geothermal energy." Both companies have expressed interest in new reactor construction, although MidAmerican has backed away from the idea. Early this year, MidAmerican subsidiary MidAmerican Nuclear abandoned a potential reactor project in Idaho, citing the rising cost of new plant construction. MidAmerican is controlled by billionaire investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. The UniStar Nuclear Energy joint venture has filed an application with NRC for a combined construction permit-operating license for an Areva US-EPR at Calvert Cliffs, the Maryland site that already hosts two reactors. UniStar has said it expects to submit an application to NRC by September 30 for a proposed Areva US- EPR at Constellation's Nine Mile Point, the site in New York where two reactors are operating.
CHICAGO, Sept. 17 /PRNewswire/ -- According to Michael Welles of EdWel, [www.edwel.com] a risk management training corporation, businesses should take home the lesson of risk management from Black Monday, September 15, 2008 to avoid their own meltdown by understanding that risk does not go away if it's ignored. If the most sophisticated financial companies in the world are prone to failure can regular businesses guard against a similar downfall? Comments made by New York Times editor David Leonhardt indicate that we're more focused on putting out fires than preventing new ones, "The Bush administration, the Fed and Congress, meanwhile, continue to focus on the immediate crises, with little attention paid to the underlying reasons that economy has gotten into this mess ... " (NY Times September 17, 2008).
"The answer to minimizing risk exposure is to not ignore it. Everything is a risk ... customer relationships, financial controls, back office operations and product development practices could all pose problems for an organization. It's getting the company to focus on the right risks. Sure you should worry about disasters (like Hurricane Ike or the stock market crash), but sometimes too much emphasis is put on these 'sky-is-falling scenarios'. Instead, be sure to focus some attention on the risks that cause 'death by a thousand cuts'. These risks slowly erode your competitiveness, and leave you in the same spot as a disaster," says Welles.
When new banking rules allowed investment banks, such as Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, to not only create a debt-based instrument (mortgage backed securities), but also facilitate its sale, it appears the motivation to understand exactly what risk was buried within the debt instrument was lost.
The new rules shifted the industry's risk posture from cautious to aggressive. "With a disciplined approach to risk management any business can understand the risks that lie just beneath the surface and develop a layer of protection from their own "'Black Mondays'," advises Welles. "The key rests in recognizing the dynamic nature of risk -- and watching out for those risk triggers that hint at where things stand," he adds.
According to Welles, every company can take these steps to minimize risk:
1. Review existing risk policies. Do the policies stop at disaster
recovery or do standards exist to manage the dynamic nature of day-to-day business risks?
2. Assess your company's attitude toward risk: Is your company a risk averse culture or does it live by the mantra -- the greater the risk the greater the reward? How do your risk practices fit with this
attitude toward risk?
3. Use new technologies to your advantage: Automated risk assessment and tracking tools, such as prediction markets, exist that can get you beyond 'just trusting your instincts'.
4. Change the culture: The long-term goal should be to get every employee involved in managing risks. Developing a common risk language among the employees and training a disciplined approach to risk management prevents minor risks from morphing into disastrous challenges.
The Nuclear Industry is a very close knit family, only 104 sites, so what happens at one place, impacts us all. I have mentioned several times on this Journal about how focused on safety we are at our plant in Michigan. Yesterday was a sad day for the folks at Monticello Plant, in Minnesota. Please send your thoughts and prayers out to the family of the victim for this tragic accident :o(
One of the things that is becoming very discouraging lately is how the whole Presidential Campaign has become about personalities and negative adds, versus the issues. This is after both candidates indicated that they would take the high road. Tsk Tsk, Shame Shame.
So, as the following video states at the very end, Be Vewy Vewy Caweful:o)
Since it is based on current law, the baseline does not reflect likely policy changes. For 2008, the baseline does not include costs for a stimulus package or additional funding for Iraq and Afghanistan. Taking these likely costs into account, the 2008 deficit will probably be closer to $400 billion than $219 billion. If the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are extended and the AMT is indexed for inflation, CBO estimates that total revenues would be almost $600 billion lower between 2011 and 2018. Also, by convention, CBO assumes discretionary spending will grow at the rate of inflation. In reality, outlays for discretionary spending have only grown by less than inflation in one of the past ten years. If discretionary spending were assumed to grow at the rate of nominal GDP instead, outlays would cost another $1.4 trillion over the ten year period.
Noteworthy
Here is information regarding our federal budget, that I made an entry about in March.
The following areas are allocated 1% or less of the budget: Environmental Protection and Natural Resources, Physical Science Research (including space exploration), Energy Research, Alternative Fuels, Farm Subsidies, Foreign Aid, Welfare, and Disaster Relief.
The following areas are allocated 2%, more or less: Aid to Education, Medical Research and Public Health, Support for State and Local Law Enforcement, and Homeland Security.
The following area is allocated 3%: Transportation - interstate highways, airports, port improvements and the like.
The above areas cover about 14% of our budget. So, where does the rest of the money go???
9% Interest on the Budget Deficit
21% Military Spending
56% Untouchable Programs, benefits and payments: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Pension, Civil Service, Orphans, Elderly Programs, and insurance for the poor
Beware malware fallout from fake nuclear explosion emails
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SophosLabs has intercepted a widespread malicious spam campaign that claimed there had been a powerful explosion at a nuclear power station outside London. According to the email, the government have stopped the media reporting about the incident and prevented anyone affected by it contacting the outside world. As you may have suspected, opening the email attachment is not a good idea... Learn more about this new threat now.
http://www.sophos.com/blogs/gc/g/2008/09/11/nuclear-email
No, your internet access is not being suspended
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Emails claiming that "your internet access is going to get suspended", have been widely distributed across the net. Claiming that the receipient has committed "illegal activities" such as pirating software, movies or music, the attachment is in fact designed to infect PCs. Sophos advises on the threat, and tells users what to look out for.
http://www.sophos.com/blogs/gc/g/2008/09/12/your-internet-access
On Sunday morning, as we were reading the paper, and enjoying our morning beverages, I saw a skunk moving across the back yard. This was a first for us, we have smelled "Pepe" multiple times, but this was the first "sighting" we have had. That prompted us to wonder whether they burrow? So, this is a skunk educational public servic announcement.
Skunks are members of the weasel family (Mustelidae). There are four species of skunk in North America: striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis), hooded skunks (M. macroura), spotted skunks (Spilogale putorius), and scarce hog nosed skunks (Conepatus mesoleucus). We have striped skunks here at Nutwood, and they measure 20 to 30 inches long (including the wide, bushy tail) and weigh 6 to 10 pounds (about the size of a house cat). Skunks have small heads and eyes, pointed snouts, and short legs that make them seem to waddle. Their strong forefeet and long nails make them excellent diggers. They tend to be slow-moving animals, never in much of a hurry, and are generally poor climbers.
An individual's territory may span 30 to 40 acres. In the wild, skunks tend to den in shallow burrows or hollow logs. They are hardly ever found more than two miles from a water source. In urban territories, skunks den beneath buildings, decks, dumps, and woodpiles. They are capable of burrowing a den a foot or so underground, with well-hidden entrances. They like warm, dry, dark, and defensible areas; most house basements and crawl spaces qualify. [Nutwood, with our ponds in the back, and wooded areas, seem to provide prime habitat. Good to know that we should only need to worry about one den :o)]
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Skunks are generally nocturnal and begin foraging at sunset. Skunks are omnivorous and help keep the rodent population in check. They often travel five to ten miles within their territory at night looking for field mice and other small rodents as well as lizards, frogs, birds, eggs, garbage, acorns, and fallen fruit. |
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They also dig for insects, especially beetles, larvae, and earthworms. Their diet includes black widow spiders and scorpions. Being carrion eaters, they help keep roadways and neighborhoods clean. An estimated 70 percent of a skunk's diet consists of insects considered harmful to humans.
The skunk's chief enemies are automobiles and great horned owls, both of which kill skunks in large numbers. Skunks rarely attack unless cornered or defending their young. If approached by an intruder and unable to flee, a skunk will usually fluff its fur, shake its tail, stamp the ground with its front feet, growl, stand on its hind legs, turn its head and spit to scare the potential attacker. If those techniques do not work, it will lift up its tail and spray. The chemical skunks spray at their enemies is a sulfur compound called N- bulymercaptan. It is ejected in a fanlike pattern from two small openings near the animal's rectum. The glands that produce the chemical hold enough for five or six full-powered sprays, but skunks seldom spray without warning or cause. Although they have sharp teeth, they rarely use them in defense, because their spray is most accurate and effective at a range of up to 15 feet.
So, this little research project reaffirms that "Pepe" is a friend, and while at times the smell is pungent, this is the rarity, and we know that "Pepe" is helping us keep the natural balance at Nutwood :o)
But a meenute juust wait, per'haps choo shuwd watche zee video...
I almost feel guilty making this entry, celebrating some football success.
So first, let me say, please pray for Houston and the surrounding Texas area.
Here in South Bend, I am celebrating an Illini victory (not as dominating as they should have been) and a Notre Dame victory. The ND victory was much better than their victory last week. So, they start the season 2-0, and I think that Charlie Wies may be a little more secure in his position. GO IRISH!!!
Master Substation
On average Fermilab draws 45 megawatts of power, delivered to two laboratory-operated substations at 345,000 volts. With the support of the Department of Energy and in collaboration with commercial suppliers, Fermilab has instituted energy conservation projects, including the development and use of superconducting magnets. Recent improvements will save the laboratory several hundred thousand dollars every year.
Can the accelerators "melt down" or blow up?
No. In the event of a power interruption or failure of other equipment, each Fermilab accelerator simply switches off, like a light bulb or television set. Accelerators contain no harmful materials: the particle beams just stop. When equipment is fixed and power restored, operators are able to turn back on the accelerators.
Does Fermilab produce nuclear waste?
No. Fermilab is not a nuclear laboratory and has no nuclear reactor. It does not produce nuclear waste. Fermilab does create a small amount of low-level radioactive waste, which is properly packaged and transported to a Department of Energy Facility in Washington state.
So, what does the recent bailout of Fannie and Freddie mean to you and I ??? From all the reading and research I have done, investors will take the brunt of the impact from this bailout, but that does not mean that we, as taxpayers, will be immune. For the state of our economy, I agree with this move, but the questions that must be answered are; what is our exposure, how long will this be under government control, and when will this program go private or be changed such that taxpayer support will not be required??? Will this happen, will these questions be answered, only time will tell [my research says that mid-2009 will be the bottom, then recovery will occur] :o)
By JEFF COX, Special to CNBC.com
(Sep. 8) - The government bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has given investors at least a short-term reason to believe the worst has begun to pass, but it's hardly a game-changer. Market pros remain unconvinced that the rescue plan by itself will be enough to snuff out the Wall Street bears.
Mortgage lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which own or guarantee more than $5 trillion in home loans [not more than 50% of home loans], are being placed in a government conservatorship as they struggle through an extended housing slump. Combined, the two companies have lost about $14 billion over the last four quarters.
"This is another good piece of news to help us," says Nadav Baum, managing director of investments at BPU Investment Management in Pittsburgh. "Are we going straight up from here? No. But what it does is gives us a lot of confidence."
Housing will have to stabilize, banks need to get healthy, and the consumer has to escape the headwinds of surging unemployment and still-high energy prices before anyone is willing to pronounce a full recovery.
But some Wall Street watchers were at least exhaling on signs that the government would not allow Fannie and Freddie, whose presence in the mortgage market is vital to maintain bank liquidity, to fail. "Until the banks go through a quarter of not having to raise more capital, no real bull market is starting. The fact is I think we've put in a floor on the pessimism at this point," says Michael Cohn, head of Atlantis Asset Management.
"The bear market will not be over until the shorts get carried out on stretchers, the same way they got carried out when the Fed lowered the discount rate back in March," Cohn adds. "The path of least resistance is still downwards. Until there's the perception that it's dangerous to short stocks on rallies, the bull market can't start."
At the same time, some fear that the market is getting too hopeful that the Fannie-Freddie deal is a sign that government intervention will cure what ails the market.
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Stevensville family holding 5K fundraiser for progeria research
