New Nuclear ???

--SIXTY-NINE PERCENT OF AMERICANS "DEFINITELY" FAVOR NEW NUCLEAR PLANTS in the US, according to a poll by Bisconti Research and GfK for the Nuclear Energy Institute. This is 10% more than favored new reactors in a similar poll last conducted in April 2007, NEI said September 29. Three-fourths of those polled said they "would find it acceptable to add a new reactor at the nearest existing nuclear power plant site," 9% more than last year, NEI said. The poll found that 38% "strongly favor" nuclear energy and 10% "strongly oppose" the technology, it said. Nuclear plants are considered "safe and secure" by 78% of those surveyed, up from 71% in April 2007, NEI said. Seventy-six percent said the US should continue to develop a geologic spent fuel repository at Yucca Mountain in Nevada as long as it meets NRC regulations, it said. Ann Bisconti, president of Bisconti Research, said in a statement that, "in the 25 years that I have been tracking public opinion about nuclear energy, I have never witnessed anything like this increase on all the measures [of support for nuclear power] across the board." The telephone survey of 1,000 adults was conducted September 18-21 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

 

I will continue to post both locations, but my new journal will be:  http://buckoclown.blogspot.com/

Progeria Update :o)

I talked with our "walker" today, and she indicated that more than 500 walkers showed up.  Cam was there (he is very small for a two year old), the parents were there, and the grandparents were there.  They were very thankful for the turnout.  So, it was a good day.  Thanks for your comments, thoughts, and prayers.

Tags: Progeria

Bailout Fails :o(

This is a non-partisan entry.  As they say on Dragnet, "Just the Facts".

Dem 140 For Bailout
Dem 95 Against Bailout

GOP 65 For Bailout
GOP 133 Against Bailout

http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2008/roll674.xml

Rove Released Update on Electoral Map

NEW ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP FROM ROVE & CO.

It's too soon for the 29 state polls released since last Wednesday to reflect the post-debate political environment, but it's clear that the recent economic news has been favoring Barack Obama. The Democrat continues to rise in the Electoral College, picking up 48 electoral votes from Michigan (17 EV), Pennsylvania (21 EV), and Wisconsin (10 EV) to bring him to 259 votes, his most since before the Republican convention. Both Missouri (11 EV) and North Carolina (15 EV) fell from McCain's column to toss-up, leaving him with 163 electoral votes. 116 electoral votes remain a toss-up, but Obama now holds his largest lead over McCain since July 17th. With 36 days remaining before the election, each candidates has the time and ability to change the dynamic of the race - and I am confident that will happen several times more.   If you want to sign up for updates from Karl Rove, click the link :o)   http://rove.com/?email_signup=Enter%20email%20address

Tags: Electoral Map, Karl Rove

Progeria :o(

Wow, what a small world.  You never know where tragedy or difficulty will hit.  The below is an e-mail request for support (I donated) regarding some people who work at our plant.  I work with the requester, used to work with the originator of the request, and have had work performed by JH, the father of the unfortunate boy.  Please send your prayers, and click to any of the links that you feel so inclinded to. 

 

Some of you may know JH in IT.  His son has a very rare disease that causes rapid aging - progeria.  There are only 13 children in the US with this disease.  Tomorrow (9/27/08) a fund-raising 5k run / walk is being held that I will be participating in and I am asking for donations. If anyone is interested in helping to find a cure for this very rare disease, please let me know. Please click the link below to view the entire story as reported on WNDU.  Also, there is a link to Cam's web page (lots of cute pictures!). Thanks, A... http://www.wndu.com/home/headlines/29641159.html?source=enews&c=y   Stevensville family holding 5K fundraiser for progeria research

Posted: 6:56 PM Sep 23, 2008 Last Updated: 6:56 PM Sep 23, 2008 Reporter: Ryan Famuliner Email Address: ryan.famuliner@wndu.com 3 comments Stevensville family holding 5K fundraiser for progeria research

A Stevensville family is asking for the community's help in raising money for research for their two-year old's rare disease. There are only 13 children in the U.S. with progeria, and fewer than 50 worldwide. We first introduced you to the Howard family and two year old Cameron back in June. Cam was diagnosed with progeria when he was 6 months old. It's a fatal gene mutation that causes premature aging, and comes with an average life span of only 13 years. But many aspects of the disease are a mystery that the Howards hope research could solve. Cam just turned two, but you probably could have guessed that by seeing that he can’t sit still. “Cam's just like every other two year old. He’s got energy, he’s curious, and he thinks the word ‘no’ means ‘do it again’ sometimes,” said Jason Howard, Cam’s dad. “He is starting to talk, which is a great thing so he can tell us if he’s having any problems or things along those lines. Right now he actually doesn’t have too many health issues at this point,” said Stephanie Howard, Cam’s mom. But health issues will come up later in life. Progeria causes tight skin, poor weight gain, stiff joints, and other conditions commonly associated with aging. Children with progeria usually die of heart disease, at an average age of 13. “There are only 46 known cases worldwide, and 13 in the U.S. so we are very thankful for the progeria research foundation and hopeful that they will be able to find a cure,” Stephanie said. Cam and his family are getting ready for a 5K Run Walk this weekend; “Kilometers for Cam,” that will raise money for the foundation. “Right now they are in the process of doing a clinical drug trial and that clinical drug trial, hopefully, will be able to get us a cure for progeria… And if not that, then to prolong life for children with progeria,” Stephanie said. As of Tuesday, more than 250 people have already signed up for the event. “That has just been a heartwarming and a tremendous I don’t even know how to describe it were just so thankful for all of the efforts and everything people have done on our behalf,” Stephanie said. They say Cam will appreciate the support, too. “He loves people so he will really enjoy having all the people around,” Stephanie said. The Howards say it's likely the research will also benefit people that suffer from things like arthritis and heart disease; things associated with aging. There's been very little research on progeria up until now, mainly because it is so rare. The 5K race starts at 8:30 am Saturday, September 27th in downtown St. Joseph, on a route overlooking Lake Michigan. There will also be a magician, face painting, games, food, and other activities at the event. For more information on the fundraiser, visit the link below, or call (269) 978-8395.

Related Links Information for 5K on Cam's website Progeria Research Foundation Website

Apple Butter Day :o)

We had a great day yesterday (read about it at Nutwood Junction).  When we arrived at Cousin Tom's House, we helped prepare the apples.  As the initial ingredients were cooking down, we walked around the yard and took some pictures.

After that, between 11:30 A.M. and 1:00 P.M., family and friends started to arrive.  We mixed and mingled, which is where the shots in the video came from.  One thing that the "family" is known for is eating, and you will see a shot of the spread that was out for the potluck.  The last shots in the video are of Cousin Tom taking the turkey out of the "ground oven".  It was very tasty.

This was a learning experience for me today, I used Google "Picasa 3" to convert my pictures to a move, then went to YouTube and uploaded the video (could not get the Picasa upload to work).  Eventually, I hope to add captions and music, but since this effort took me several hours this afternoon, I will leave it silent.  Enjoy.

Hope your weekend was good, and that you head into the new week with a positive attitude and smile on your face :o)

 

 

 

Tags: Apple Butter, New Week, Smile

Sunday Silliness :o)

 

 

 

  That which does not kill me postpones the inevitable.

 

Tags: Adversity, Dispair.com

Are You A Dog Person or a Cat Person :o)

Today, on NPR, there was a Michiana Chronicles spot (we live in an area that borders on Michigan and Indiana, from Lake Michigan to Elkhart, IN, and the name of this region is Michiana).  There was a tribute to a recently deceased family member, a golden retriever dog.  The line that really hit home for me was that a dog has "boundless hope" that is expressed every time you go for a walk, rub their belly, and such.  I think this really applies to most pets, they really want to be with us, and they are non-judgmental (for the most part, or if they are Siamese :o).  I did a quick google search for "Ode to Dog" and found this Ode.  Hope you enjoy.

 

An Ode To Dogs [http://myjunkmail.blogspot.com/2008/03/ode-to-dogs.html]

If you want someone who will eat whatever you put in front of him and never say its not quite as good as his mothers

then get a dog.

If you want someone always willing to go out, at any hour, for as long and wherever you want ...

then get a dog.

If you want someone who will never touch the remote, doesn't care about football, and can sit next to you as you watch romantic movies

then get a dog.

If you want someone who is content to get on your bed just to warm your feet and whom you can push off if he snores

then get a dog.

If you want someone who never criticizes what you do, doesn't care if you are pretty or ugly, fat or thin, young or old, who acts as if every word you say is especially worthy of listening to, and loves you unconditionally, perpetually ...

then get a dog.

BUT, on the other hand, if you want someone who will never come when you call, ignores you totally when you come home, walks all over you, runs around all night and only comes home to eat and sleep, and acts as if your entire existence is solely to ensure his happiness:

then get a cat.

Tags: Cats, Dogs, Hope

Russia From My Window :o)

 

 
Relax J-Land Tigers, this picture is meant in jest.  I found this over at Wicked Politics [Warning, do not click the link if McCain/Palin bashing makes your blood boil, or your blood pressure soar] :o)

 

Hope you have a great Friday evening, and if you are going to watch the debate, remember that if you already know who you are going to vote for, then you are not the target audience.

 

I estimate that 80% of America has already decided who they will vote for (about 30% of our voters are declared independents), which based on the 2004 election, leaves about 20 million left to decide.  The margin of victory for Bush was about 10 million, so you can see where the emphasis will be.  So, try and relax, remember that there are strong feelings amongst those who have decided, and you will watch the debate through those filtered glasses.

Science Scene - Roundabout

 

 

Seems that recently, at least here in South Bend, IN, a new phenomena has become a reality.  The introduction of a roundabout.  It this a good thing, or not?  Here are some interesting facts (from a September 15, 2008 TIME article regarding the 50 roundabouts in Carmel, IN):

 

 

 

 

• Cars entering a roundabout must yield to those already in the circle.
• With all cars traveling in the same direction, roundabouts eliminate head-on collisions, as well as left turns, one of the most dangerous moves in an intersection.
• Because drivers are anxious about merging with roundabout traffic, they slow down, which helps reduce accidents.
• With no traffic lights to divert dirvers' attention upward, roundabouts keep motorist focused on the cars and pedestrians around them.
• With no traffic lights, drivers save time and gas money (reduces idle time at intersections and signals).
• Roundabouts cost much less to construct than stoplight intersections.

 

So, next time you are out-and-about, and happen to encounter a roundabout, appreciate the simplicity and inherent safety of the design :o)

Tags: Roundabout, Carmel, Indiana, Time

Good Day at the Office :o)

We are getting ready to watch the Office, and this show is one of the best shows in recent memory.  It is one of the inspirations for my new "Sunday Silliness" entries.

But that is not the subject of this entry.  Today, several months of investigation, interfacing with various senior management and engineers, and many hours of balancing the 5-10 year budget, I received approval of a 5 year capital budget for the station today.  This is a first in my nine years there, doing more than one year at a time.  As an added extra, we approved the incentive plan for 2009 as well.  Unfortunately, the 2008 incentive may take a hit based on my previous entry, with one of the units out of service.  Good thing we do not budget for incentives :o)

Hope your week is going well, and with tomorrow being Friday, that you are ramping up for an excellent weekend.

Tags: The Office

Bad Day At The Office :o(

Due to the serious nature of this event, and the fact that the low pressure turbines were replaced in 2006, and legal and insurance issues, I can not give any details beyond the below press release.  The picture to the left is a typical turbine steam path for a power plant.This is a huge impact to our plant and our company, as a single unit power replacement cost is in the neighborhood of $500K to $1M per day.

COOK UNIT 1 GENERATOR FIRE INSPECTIONS CONTINUE

BRIDGMAN, Mich., Sept. 22, 2008 – Initial indications are that Saturday night’s fire at American Electric Power’s (NYSE: AEP) Cook Nuclear Plant Unit 1 occurred when turbine vibrations led to a generator hydrogen leak that ignited. Damage to the turbines and generator from the fire is minimal, but vibrations did damage the low pressure turbines, bearing supports and some steam piping.

The cause of the vibrations is believed to be an imbalance from the loss of turbine rotor blades.

Hydrogen is used in a closed system to keep the generator cool during operation and the seals that contain the hydrogen were likely damaged by the vibrations.

“We know how to fix and operate equipment, but we are most gratified that there were no personal injuries as a result of the incident,” said Mike Rencheck, AEP senior vice president and chief nuclear officer. “Our plant operations crews, fire brigade, security officers and other emergency responders all performed well. We are also very appreciative of the excellent response and support of local fire fighters and law enforcement.”

The small fire was quickly contained by the plant fire brigade. Fire personnel from Lake Township, Bridgman, Lincoln Township, Royalton Township and Chikaming Township responded to the site or mobilized. Berrien County Sheriff’s deputies and Baroda/Lake Township law enforcement also responded.  

One the plant’s three fire pumps was damaged and a 12-inch water supply line broke. Cook uses Lake Township water as a back-up to on site water storage tanks and is currently connected to that system.

An estimate for returning the unit to service will be made after the turbine casings are removed and the turbines fully inspected. It is expected to take about one to three weeks to complete turbine inspections.

The generator is in the Turbine Building and is separate from the nuclear reactor that is located in the Containment Building. The nuclear systems were unaffected by the generator fire. AEP has sufficient reserve generating capacity so the loss of the Cook unit had no impact on customers. Cook Unit 2 remained at 100 percent power through the incident.

Financial Forum - The Price of Greed

The purpose of this entry is to try and explain the current Wallstreet and economic turmoil, in simple terms. <yeah, good luck with that, he hears through heavy sighs>.  I am making this entry early, so that as your eyes glaze over, you can recover and enjoy the rest of your night, the last thing I want is to put you to sleep on your keyboard :o)

Investors, particularly foreign investors seeking higher yields as we have lowered interest rates, demand more options.  Wallstreet answers with the development of Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs), which are complicated securities based on pools of mortgages.  They were rated AA and AAA grade investments (this is good) by the rating agencies (this is an often overlooked aspect of this mess, we need rules and standards in this area as well).

With rising home prices over the last decade, financial firms not only create these CDOs, but leverage and load up, in the case of Lehman, borrowing at a rate of 30 to 1 to their capital reserves and assets.  If you borrow 30 times your capital, and those investments rise in value 1%, you essentially make a 30% return.  Conversely, if they lower in value 1%, you have a 30% loss. 

American Insurance Group (AIG), and other insurers, sell Credit-Default Swaps (CDS), derivatives designed to protect investors from failures.  Again, not a bad practice in a rising market, but when leveraged firms start losing money (due to the housing downturn), they can not cover all the losses.  AIG is a $1 trillion company, and the government could not let it fail, hence the $85 Billion LOAN (not a bailout, the tax payers own more than 80% of this company now, and with patience and time, we will make money on this investment).

Last, supply of housing overwhelms demand, and the median sales price of existing homes falls 15% from 2006 to 2007.  Mortgage holders, including the sub-primes, owe more than their homes are now worth, and with adjustable rates, they start to default in large numbers.  These defaults cause the huge economic fiasco that we are in based on those leveraged companies, and as each percentage point of loss looms, the CDOs become worthless.  Purchasing of securities and mortgages stop, and the government must again step in and put Freddie and Fannie in conservatorship. 

Basically, in the short term, tax payers are bailing out the financial institutions, but in the long term, similar to the Savings and Loan fiasco, the taxpayers can end up ahead as the economy recovers, which it will.

Hope this long winded entry explains things a tad :o)

Tags: Fannie, Freddie, AIG, Greed, Housing Downturn

Rovian Politics :o)

Tonight, via my involvement in our company Political Action Committee, we had tickets to go hear Karl Rove speak at an event for the Economic Club of Southwestern Michigan.  Go to Nutwood Junction for a more in-depth description of the event :o)

Karl Rove is a staunch Republican, who played a large part in the successful elections of George Bush, #43.  He has a brilliant political mind, whether you are Republican or not.  He also served as #43's Chief of Staff, and was part of the inner circle.  He is currently a political analyst for Fox News, and his bias definitely came out in quoting Fox polls and such.  But all in all, a very informative and entertaining speech.

For those political addicts out there, and for my Republican friends, here is a link to his web site.  I have subscribed for updates.

http://rove.com/?email_signup=Enter%20email%20address

Tags: Karl Rove, Politics, Lake Michigan College, Economic Club of Southwestern Michigan

Sunday Silliness - Achievement

Yesterday, I posted a silly entry regarding bad management.  I have decided to make this a weekly entry, on Sundays, called "Sunday Silliness".  This is my effort to send you into a new work week with a smile on your face and in your heart :o)

 

 

 

You can do anything you set your mind to when you have vision, determination, and an endless supply of expendable labor.

 

 

Tags: Bad Management, Achievement, www.dispair.com

Pre-European Missourians :o)

I received a "News-Leader" article (Springfield Missouri) from my Mom earlier this week.  The Topic of the article is Pre-European Missourians.

 

I am 1/8 Osage Indian.  My grandmother on my mother's side was 1/2 Osage, with the other half being mostly French.  She was adopted as an infant, and there are no records or other information available.  The current reservation is in Pawhuska, OK.  Another life-time ago, I travelled through and stopped at the reservation on a trip to visit my Mom in Missouri (she lived in Protem, MO near the AR border at the time).  I know that OK was their final stop, as was so often common during the 1800's, as the Indians of various tribes were driven from their ancestral lands.  What I did not realize is that I was partially going home every time I went to see my Mom in Missouri.

 

I have several books on the history of the Osage People.  This article has inspired me to read them.

 

Below are some details of the article :o)

 

 

According to Larry Burt, associate professor and Native American Specialist at Missouri State University, the Osage dominated the northern Ozarks.  There could have been as many as 30,000 to 35,000 Osage, in Missouri in the 1700's. 

 

The Osage had permanent villages, but also had need to travel.  They were agricultural, but they still had to range over large areas.  They did a surprising amount of trading.  One of the main items they would trade is bear fat.  They would hunt bear during the winter, use all the meat and fur, but would trade the fat, which was transported long distances in deer-skin sacks.   Bear fat was used as a base for paint and as a base for soup.  Of course, the type of soup they made also included bone marrow, animal blood, wild carrots (now known as Queen Anne's lace), wild onions, acorns or a grain product - as well as the bear fat. [YUM!]

 

The Osage and other tribes also grew their own corn, squash and beans.

 

By the 1800's, the Osage were driven out by eastern tribes that had been forced west, such as the Delaware and Shawnee.  Soon, those tribes were forced out as well.

Tags: Osage, Missouri, Native American

Science Scene - Autumnal Equinox

At the autumnal equinox (Sept 22, 2008; 11:44:18 A.M. EDT), the Sun appears to cross the celestial equator, from north to south; this marks the beginning of autumn in the Northern Hemisphere.

 

 

There is either an equinox (autumn and spring) or a solstice (summer and winter) on approximately the 21st day of the last month of every quarter of the calendar year. On a day which has an equinox, the centre of the Sun will spend a nearly equal amount of time above and below the horizon at every location on Earth and night and day will be of nearly the same length. The word equinox derives from the Latin words aequus (equal) and nox (night). In reality, the day is longer than the night at an equinox. Commonly, the day is defined as the period that sunlight reaches the ground in the absence of local obstacles. From Earth, the Sun appears as a disc and not a single point of light; so, when the centre of the Sun is below the horizon, the upper edge is visible. Furthermore, the atmosphere refracts light; so, even when the upper limb of the Sun is below the horizon, its rays reach over the horizon to the ground. In sunrise/sunset tables, the assumed semidiameter (apparent radius) of the sun is 16 minutes of arc and the atmospheric refraction is assumed to be 34 minutes of arc. Their combination means that when the upper limb of Sun is on the visible horizon its centre is 50 minutes of arc below the geometric horizon, which is the intersection with the celestial sphere of a horizontal plane through the eye of the observer. These effects together make the day about 14 minutes longer than the night at the equator, and longer still at sites toward the poles. The real equality of day and night only happens at places far enough from the equator to have at least a seasonal difference in daylength of 7 minutes, and occurs a few days towards the winter side of each equinox.

Management 001 - Disconfirmation :o)

For you J-Landers out there, who like me, are still part of the daily grind, here is a link to a video on bad management - Disconfirmation.  I plan on doing some of these periodically to bring you a bit of humor.  Sometimes, knowing what not to do is just as important as doing the right thing :o)

Disconfirmation:  Face-to-face interaction of executives with their employee subordinates is an unfortunate necessity in most organizations. However distasteful, such exchanges do provide fertile opportunities for the seeding of Radical Demotivation™ in the employee psyche. In this segment, Dr. E.L. Kersten explains one of several disconfirmational communication tactics which can be helpful in disabusing employees of their narcissistic delusions of parity.

Tags: Bad Management, Disconfirmation, Despair.com, narcissistic, delusions, parity

Nuclear Renaissance ???

One of my favorite Bob And Tom diddies is "So you think you are smarter than Einstein?".  So, with this entry, I ask you, do you think you are smarter than Warren Buffett?  His holding company is purchasing Constellation Energy, which has one of the most aggressive Nuclear philosophies out there.  If you are a betting person in the financial sector, Progress Energy, Florida Power & Light, NRG, Constellation, Detroit Edison, and Exelon have all recently announced that they are considering nuclear expansion.  So, consider investments in these companies, after you have performed the proper vetting of course :o)

--MIDAMERICAN HAS REACHED A TENTATIVE AGREEMENT TO BUY CONSTELLATION for about $4.7 billion, the companies said September 18. The companies said they expect to enter into a definitive merger agreement by close of business September 19 and to close the deal within nine months. In a statement, MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. President and CEO Gregory Abel said his company "is comfortable with, and committed to, Constellation Energy's current strategic plan." He said MidAmerican intends to allow Constellation "to operate autonomously as it pursues its long-term goals." Constellation's "premier fleet of nuclear assets, and its UniStar venture with [EDF Group] complements MidAmerican's ongoing commitment to environmental initiatives, including investments in hydro, wind and geothermal energy." Both companies have expressed interest in new reactor construction, although MidAmerican has backed away from the idea. Early this year, MidAmerican subsidiary MidAmerican Nuclear abandoned a potential reactor project in Idaho, citing the rising cost of new plant construction. MidAmerican is controlled by billionaire investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. The UniStar Nuclear Energy joint venture has filed an application with NRC for a combined construction permit-operating license for an Areva US-EPR at Calvert Cliffs, the Maryland site that already hosts two reactors. UniStar has said it expects to submit an application to NRC by September 30 for a proposed Areva US- EPR at Constellation's Nine Mile Point, the site in New York where two reactors are operating.

Tags: Nuclear, Constellation, Warren Buffett, Areva, DTE, FP&L

It's The Economy... :o)

CHICAGO, Sept. 17 /PRNewswire/ -- According to Michael Welles of EdWel, [www.edwel.com] a risk management training corporation, businesses should take home the lesson of risk management from Black Monday, September 15, 2008 to avoid their own meltdown by understanding that risk does not go away if it's ignored.  If the most sophisticated financial companies in the world are prone to failure can regular businesses guard against a similar downfall?  Comments made by New York Times editor David Leonhardt indicate that we're more focused on putting out fires than preventing new ones, "The Bush administration, the Fed and Congress, meanwhile, continue to focus on the immediate crises, with little attention paid to the underlying reasons that economy has gotten into this mess ... " (NY Times September 17, 2008).

   "The answer to minimizing risk exposure is to not ignore it.  Everything is a risk ... customer relationships, financial controls, back office operations and product development practices could all pose problems for an organization.  It's getting the company to focus on the right risks. Sure you should worry about disasters (like Hurricane Ike or the stock market crash), but sometimes too much emphasis is put on these 'sky-is-falling scenarios'.  Instead, be sure to focus some attention on the risks that cause 'death by a thousand cuts'.  These risks slowly erode your competitiveness, and leave you in the same spot as a disaster," says Welles.

When new banking rules allowed investment banks, such as Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, to not only create a debt-based instrument (mortgage backed securities), but also facilitate its sale, it appears the motivation to understand exactly what risk was buried within the debt instrument was lost.

The new rules shifted the industry's risk posture from cautious to aggressive.  "With a disciplined approach to risk management any business can understand the risks that lie just beneath the surface and develop a layer of protection from their own "'Black Mondays'," advises Welles. "The key rests in recognizing the dynamic nature of risk -- and watching out for those risk triggers that hint at where things stand," he adds.    

According to Welles, every company can take these steps to minimize risk:

   1. Review existing risk policies. Do the policies stop at disaster
      recovery or do standards exist to manage the dynamic nature of day-to-day business risks?
   2. Assess your company's attitude toward risk: Is your company a risk averse culture or does it live by the mantra -- the greater the risk the greater the reward?  How do your risk practices fit with this
      attitude toward risk?
   3. Use new technologies to your advantage:  Automated risk assessment and  tracking tools, such as prediction markets, exist that can get you beyond 'just trusting your instincts'.
   4. Change the culture: The long-term goal should be to get every employee involved in managing risks.  Developing a common risk language among the employees and training a disciplined approach to risk management prevents minor risks from morphing into disastrous challenges.

Tragic Accident at Monticello Plant :o(

The Nuclear Industry is a very close knit family, only 104 sites, so what happens at one place, impacts us all.  I have mentioned several times on this Journal about how focused on safety we are at our plant in Michigan.  Yesterday was a sad day for the folks at Monticello Plant, in Minnesota.  Please send your thoughts and prayers out to the family of the victim for this tragic accident :o(

<http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/myfox/MyFox/pages/sidebar_video.jsp?contentId=7455643&version=1&locale=EN-US>

Be Vewy Vewy Caweful :o)

One of the things that is becoming very discouraging lately is how the whole Presidential Campaign has become about personalities and negative adds, versus the issues.  This is after both candidates indicated that they would take the high road.  Tsk Tsk, Shame Shame.

So, as the following video states at the very end, Be Vewy Vewy Caweful:o)

 

Tags: Elmer Fudd, Politics

Campaign Corner - Budget Deficit

When you hear rhetoric from our two candidates, please keep in mind that they are hand-cuffed by our National Debt.  With the recent happenings on wall street (I am in a buy mode, not a selling mode, best thing is to keep the status quo if you have the cash to get through the next 3-6 months), I felt that making this entry about our budget deficit was appropriate.  It is one thing to talk about grandiose plans and such, but when the rubber meets the road, there is little that a President can actually do.  For information regarding the National Debt, Click Here ..

 

 Assuming current laws and policies, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts that in FY 2008, revenues will total $2.7 trillion, expenditures will be $2.9 trillion, the deficit will be $219 billion (up from $163 billion in 2007), and the on-budget deficit will be $414 billion. As a share of GDP, revenues will be 18.7%, expenditures will be 20.2%, the deficit will be 1.5%, and the on-budget deficit will be 2.9%.  The deterioration in the projection for the 2008 deficit from $155 billion to $219 billion is due to declining revenue estimates and the Alternative Minimum Tax patch that Congress passed. The CBO is not projecting the economic slowdown to turn into a recession and is projecting a rebound in 2009, so the lower economic assumptions do not lead to significantly higher deficits in the out years.

 

Since it is based on current law, the baseline does not reflect likely policy changes. For 2008, the baseline does not include costs for a stimulus package or additional funding for Iraq and Afghanistan. Taking these likely costs into account, the 2008 deficit will probably be closer to $400 billion than $219 billion. If the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are extended and the AMT is indexed for inflation, CBO estimates that total revenues would be almost $600 billion lower between 2011 and 2018. Also, by convention, CBO assumes discretionary spending will grow at the rate of inflation. In reality, outlays for discretionary spending have only grown by less than inflation in one of the past ten years. If discretionary spending were assumed to grow at the rate of nominal GDP instead, outlays would cost another $1.4 trillion over the ten year period.

 

Noteworthy

 

• The 2008 deficit is likely to be much larger than the baseline suggests.
• Projected surpluses beginning after 2012 occur mainly due to revenue growth from the expiration of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, and the growing projected revenues from the Alternative Minimum Tax, both which may fail to materialize.
• Healthcare costs are a major driver of expenditures, as Medicare and Medicaid are projected to more than double in cost over the next ten years.
• As mandatory costs increase, discretionary outlays are projected to fall from 7.6% of GDP in 2007 to 6.1% of GDP in 2018, which would be lower than at any point in the last 40 years.
• The provisions of the Deficit Control Act that instruct CBO how to construct the baseline have expired. So much attention is now given to “alternative baselines” (such as different assumptions of defense spending, growth in domestic discretionary appropriations, or tax policy) that it would be worthwhile to revisit how the baseline is determined.
• Yesterday, we released a statement on fiscal stimulus. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget believes that no stimulus is better than a bad package and that after passing a stimulus package, the President and the Congress should focus on developing a long-term budget plan that addresses entitlements, tax reform, and spending restraint. http://www.crfb.org/documents/StimulusStatementJan2008.doc
• Looking ahead, improving the fiscal health of the nation will be greatly effected by how dedicated the next president is to long-term budget goals, and how effective he or she is at working with Congress to achieve these goals.  So far, none of the presidential candidates have put forth a plan for how to balance the budget in the short or long-run. The topic of fiscal responsibility must be elevated to a top tier issue and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget urges all politicians and candidates to turn their attention to this important topic.

Here is information regarding our federal budget, that I made an entry about in March.

 

The following areas are allocated 1% or less of the budget: Environmental Protection and Natural Resources, Physical Science Research (including space exploration), Energy Research, Alternative Fuels, Farm Subsidies, Foreign Aid, Welfare, and Disaster Relief.

The following areas are allocated 2%, more or less: Aid to Education, Medical Research and Public Health, Support for State and Local Law Enforcement, and Homeland Security.

The following area is allocated 3%: Transportation - interstate highways, airports, port improvements and the like.

The above areas cover about 14% of our budget. So, where does the rest of the money go???

9%   Interest on the Budget Deficit

21%   Military Spending

56%   Untouchable Programs, benefits and payments: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Pension, Civil Service, Orphans, Elderly Programs, and insurance for the poor

Tags: Budget Deficit, Social Security, Military Spending

Public Service Announcement - Malware

Is that really Barack Obama in that video?
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As the US Presidential fight hots up, hackers have attempted to infect millions by sending an email claiming to contain a link to an incriminating video of Barack Obama. Salacious surfers and followers of hot political news may be tempted to watch the video, but risk being infected by malicious code. Watch our video to find out the truth behind this campaign.
http://www.sophos.com/blogs/gc/g/2008/09/10/barack-obama

Beware malware fallout from fake nuclear explosion emails
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SophosLabs has intercepted a widespread malicious spam campaign that claimed there had been a powerful explosion at a nuclear power station outside London. According to the email, the government have stopped the media reporting about the incident and prevented anyone affected by it contacting the outside world. As you may have suspected, opening the email attachment is not a good idea... Learn more about this new threat now.
http://www.sophos.com/blogs/gc/g/2008/09/11/nuclear-email

No, your internet access is not being suspended
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Emails claiming that "your internet access is going to get suspended", have been widely distributed across the net. Claiming that the receipient has committed "illegal activities" such as pirating software, movies or music, the attachment is in fact designed to infect PCs. Sophos advises on the threat, and tells users what to look out for.
http://www.sophos.com/blogs/gc/g/2008/09/12/your-internet-access

Pepe Le Pew :o)

 

On Sunday morning, as we were reading the paper, and enjoying our morning beverages, I saw a skunk moving across the back yard.  This was a first for us, we have smelled "Pepe" multiple times, but this was the first "sighting" we have had.  That prompted us to wonder whether they burrow?  So, this is a skunk educational public servic announcement.

 

Skunks are members of the weasel family (Mustelidae). There are four species of skunk in North America: striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis), hooded skunks (M. macroura), spotted skunks (Spilogale putorius), and scarce hog nosed skunks (Conepatus mesoleucus).   We have striped skunks here at Nutwood, and they measure 20 to 30 inches long (including the wide, bushy tail) and weigh 6 to 10 pounds (about the size of a house cat). Skunks have small heads and eyes, pointed snouts, and short legs that make them seem to waddle. Their strong forefeet and long nails make them excellent diggers. They tend to be slow-moving animals, never in much of a hurry, and are generally poor climbers.

An individual's territory may span 30 to 40 acres. In the wild, skunks tend to den in shallow burrows or hollow logs. They are hardly ever found more than two miles from a  water source. In urban territories, skunks den beneath buildings, decks, dumps, and woodpiles. They are capable of burrowing a den a foot or so underground, with well-hidden entrances. They like warm, dry, dark, and defensible areas; most house basements and crawl spaces qualify.  [Nutwood, with our ponds in the back, and wooded areas, seem to provide prime habitat. Good to know that we should only need to worry about one den :o)]

Skunks are generally nocturnal and begin foraging at sunset. Skunks are omnivorous and help keep the rodent population in check. They often travel five to ten miles within their territory at night looking for field mice and other small rodents as well as lizards, frogs, birds, eggs, garbage, acorns, and fallen fruit.

They also dig for insects, especially beetles, larvae, and earthworms. Their diet includes black widow spiders and scorpions. Being carrion eaters, they help keep roadways and neighborhoods clean. An estimated 70 percent of a skunk's diet consists of insects considered harmful to humans.

The skunk's chief enemies are automobiles and great horned owls, both of which kill skunks in large numbers. Skunks rarely attack unless cornered or defending their young. If approached by an intruder and unable to flee, a skunk will usually fluff its fur, shake its tail, stamp the ground with its front feet, growl, stand on its hind legs, turn its head and spit to scare the potential attacker. If those techniques do not work, it will lift up its tail and spray.  The chemical skunks spray at their enemies is a sulfur compound called N- bulymercaptan. It is ejected in a fanlike pattern from two small openings near the animal's rectum. The glands that produce the chemical hold enough for five or  six full-powered sprays, but skunks seldom spray without warning or cause. Although they have sharp teeth, they rarely use them in defense, because their spray is most accurate and effective at a range of up to 15 feet.

So, this little research project reaffirms that "Pepe" is a friend, and while at times the smell is pungent, this is the rarity, and we know that "Pepe" is helping us keep the natural balance at Nutwood :o)  

But a meenute juust wait, per'haps choo shuwd watche zee video...

 

Rain, courtesy of Mssrs. Lowell and Ike

 

 

This is what it looks like outside our back window today (not my actual picture, cannot capture the rain effect). 

 

 

Friday and Saturday morning, we where inundated with the last vestige of Tropical Storm Lowell, depositing 7.06" here. 

 

 

 

Last night, it continued to rain, and it is steady now, and expected to last all day (courtesy of Mr. Ike). 

 

 

 

We are half way through September, and have already surpassed the September record.  As of Saturday  evening, we were at 9.43" so far this month.  Today, we will definitely pass the record for the wettest month ever for South Bend, 10.86" set in June, 1993. 

 

Fortunately, when we first moved in here at Nutwood Junction, I installed two yard drains that go to the back pond.  During our first rain here, before we actually moved in, there were huge puddles in the back yard near the house.

 

 

Here s a picture of our backyard right now.

 

 

 

We hope that this will not impact the crops or harvest for our local farmers.

 

Hope that this finds you safe and dry :o)

 

Tags: Tropical Storm, Lowell, Ike, Rain, Puddle, Yard Drain

Football!!

I almost feel guilty making this entry, celebrating some football success.

So first, let me say, please pray for Houston and the surrounding Texas area.

Here in South Bend, I am celebrating an Illini victory (not as dominating as they should have been) and a Notre Dame victory.  The ND victory was much better than their victory last week.  So, they start the season 2-0, and I think that Charlie Wies may be a little more secure in his position.  GO IRISH!!!

Tags: Ike, Hurricane, Irish, Illini, Notre Dame

Science Scene - Supercollider

This entry is due to an entry by Pat at Roses rambling.  I left a quick comment there, but wanted to put up a more thorough explanation of particle physics.

 

FermiLab (Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory), located in Batavia, Illinois, was the premier particle physics laboratory in the world until the recent completion of the Supercollider in Cern, Switzerland.  My father worked at FermiLab from the day they broke ground in 1968 on the particle accelerator, until his death in 1990.  Batavia is in the middle of corn country, and this 16 story building (Wilson Hall) could be seen for miles away, and was a defining structure in the area.  My father's office was on the fifth floor on the right side.  My father was in charge of the facilities, requiring electrical, mechanical, and structural engineering knowledge.  As an electrical engineer by training, his pride and joy was the master substation below.  I remember spending many weekend mornings as a child going with him to the master substation, and was there when they delivered the then largest three winding transformer in the world, and when they built the capacitor bank (used to boost voltage, the blue and orange structure, do you think the colors are for the fighting Illini?).  No doubt that these childhood trips with my father is what inspired me to become an electrical power engineer as well.  Thanks for taking this little trip down memory lane with me, and I hope that you learned a little something along the way :o)

 

 

Wilson Hall and Ramsey Auditorium
Wilson Hall, inspired by a Gothic cathedral in Beauvais, France, is the focal point for administrative and scientific activity at the laboratory. It has office space for about one third of Fermilab's 2,200 employees. Performances of the Fermilab Arts Series, which are open to the public, take place in adjacent Ramsey Auditorium, which offers almost 850 seats.

 

 

 

 

Master Substation
On average Fermilab draws 45 megawatts of power, delivered to two laboratory-operated substations at 345,000 volts. With the support of the Department of Energy and in collaboration with commercial suppliers, Fermilab has instituted energy conservation projects, including the development and use of superconducting magnets. Recent improvements will save the laboratory several hundred thousand dollars every year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tevatron
The four-mile-long Tevatron with its superconducting magnets is the most powerful particle accelerator in the world. Traveling at almost the speed of light, protons and antiprotons circle the Tevatron in opposite directions. Physicists make the beams collide at the centers of two 5,000-ton detectors inside the Tevatron tunnel, revealing the conditions of matter in the early universe and its structure at the smallest scale.

 

So, what exactly do they do, what research is performed, at a particle accelerator?  Is it dangerous?  Fermilab conducts basic research into particle physics - meaning they keep asking basic questions. They investigate the smallest building blocks of matter separated by the smallest distances that science has ever explored. They're constantly trying to learn more about these fundamental particles, and understand the forces that hold them together or force them apart. They conduct their investigations by making these particles collide-which might sound unusual, but remember that we see things in the world around us because photons bounce off them and make an impression on our retina, which is then transmitted by the optic nerve to the brain for processing. We're following a similar path to "see" what happens in these subatomic collisions-sort of like a giant microscope, using a different form of "light."  This is often done by using a bubble chamber where the particles leave a trail through the liquid.

 

Can the accelerators "melt down" or blow up?
No. In the event of a power interruption or failure of other equipment, each Fermilab accelerator simply switches off, like a light bulb or television set. Accelerators contain no harmful materials: the particle beams just stop. When equipment is fixed and power restored, operators are able to turn back on the accelerators.

 

Does Fermilab produce nuclear waste?
No. Fermilab is not a nuclear laboratory and has no nuclear reactor. It does not produce nuclear waste. Fermilab does create a small amount of low-level radioactive waste, which is properly packaged and transported to a Department of Energy Facility in Washington state.

 

Is there a benefit for such basic research?

 

                   Besides the sometimes far-future applications of advances in basic knowledge, the tools used to carry out the research can themselves be found in surprising and general applications.

• All modern forms of medical imaging technologies had their beginnings as detection devices in physics and chemistry. Many of the industrial scientists credited with the creation of devices such as CAT (Computer Aided Tomography) scanners were originally young scientists trained within the basic science community.
• Parallel computing, the use of many computers to attack different parts of a problem simultaneously, was invented by scientists who needed to process their data faster than the conventional, one-processor mode could achieve. This computing method has transformed such diverse areas as weather forecasting and market trend analyses.
• The use of particle accelerators not only for the scientific study of the collisions that they produce but as technological tools, has become widespread. The synchrotron radiation emitted when charged particle beams bend has become an indispensable tool for the study of new materials and making 'pictures' of living cells. Some hospitals now even have their own accelerators for the therapeutic treatment of otherwise untreatable tumors.
• Are you reading this piece on the World Wide Web? If so, you are directly benefiting from a tool that originated because of the need of large but far-flung scientific collaborations in particle physics to communicate quickly and effectively, worldwide. The Web, developed by the European high-energy physics laboratory CERN, has now transformed the way we find and use information, talk electronically to our friends, and view the events of the world. It is striking that the communications needs of a few thousand particle physicists should lead so quickly to so large a change in the way we live.

Tags: Fermilab, protons, particle accelerator, Cern, Batavia IL

Financial Forum - Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac

So, what does the recent bailout of Fannie and Freddie mean to you and I ???  From all the reading and research I have done, investors will take the brunt of the impact from this bailout, but that does not mean that we, as taxpayers, will be immune.  For the state of our economy, I agree with this move, but the questions that must be answered are; what is our exposure, how long will this be under government control, and when will this program go private or be changed such that taxpayer support will not be required???   Will this happen, will these questions be answered, only time will tell [my research says that mid-2009 will be the bottom, then recovery will occur] :o)

By JEFF COX, Special to CNBC.com
(Sep. 8) - The government bailout of Fannie Mae  and Freddie Mac  has given investors at least a short-term reason to believe the worst has begun to pass, but it's hardly a game-changer.   Market pros remain unconvinced that the rescue plan by itself will be enough to snuff out the Wall Street bears.

Mortgage lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which own or guarantee more than $5 trillion in home loans [not more than 50% of home loans], are being placed in a government conservatorship as they struggle through an extended housing slump. Combined, the two companies have lost about $14 billion over the last four quarters.

"This is another good piece of news to help us," says Nadav Baum, managing director of investments at BPU Investment Management in Pittsburgh. "Are we going straight up from here? No. But what it does is gives us a lot of confidence."

Housing will have to stabilize, banks need to get healthy, and the consumer has to escape the headwinds of surging unemployment and still-high energy prices before anyone is willing to pronounce a full recovery.

But some Wall Street watchers were at least exhaling on signs that the government would not allow Fannie and Freddie, whose presence in the mortgage market is vital to maintain bank liquidity, to fail. "Until the banks go through a quarter of not having to raise more capital, no real bull market is starting. The fact is I think we've put in a floor on the pessimism at this point," says Michael Cohn, head of Atlantis Asset Management.

"The bear market will not be over until the shorts get carried out on stretchers, the same way they got carried out when the Fed lowered the discount rate back in March," Cohn adds. "The path of least resistance is still downwards. Until there's the perception that it's dangerous to short stocks on rallies, the bull market can't start."
At the same time, some fear that the market is getting too hopeful that the Fannie-Freddie deal is a sign that government intervention will cure what ails the market.