Campaign Corner - How do the Conventions Impact Polls

I have always wondered what the real impacts of the conventions are on the election predictions.  I think the following information indicates, that regardless of who you are favoring or planning on voting for, the conventions, or at least the sound bites about the results, are watched by a large swatch of America.

McCain Moves Ahead of Obama in Poll

By DAVID PAUL KUHN, Politico.com

(Sept. 7) - John McCain has overtaken Barack Obama in the Gallup daily tracking poll and has his highest level of support in that poll since early May.  McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 45 percent among registered voters, by Gallup’s measure. McCain has so far earned the same convention bounce as Obama, though at a more rapid pace.

 

Obama peaked at a 5-point convention bounce in polling published last Tuesday. He was ahead 49 percent to 43 percent in the Gallup poll conducted before the Republican convention. He then soared to 50 percent for the first time of the election, by Gallup’s measure, while McCain fell to 42 percent.

 

McCain’s 5-point to 6-point bounce so far, like Obama’s, remains at par with historical expectations. In the 22 major-party conventions since 1964, the nominee walked away with, on average in most years, a 5-point to 6-point uptick in Gallup’s polls. The presidential polling will likely remain in flux until the middle of next week.

 

Tags: McCain, Obama, Conventions